The AEMO, theoretically the Australian Energy Market Operator, warned that people in Victoria and NSW face a high risk of blackouts this summer. Today the Sydney Morning Herald describes how big business is fed-up, calling it “disgraceful” that they have had to spend millions to install back up generators. The chief of Coca-cola Amatil Australia compared the situation to what they face in Papua New Guinea.
How green is your diesel?
A disgraceful situation — the blackout risk in Australia
by Darren Gray and Nick Toscano.
Australia’s biggest fruit and vegetable grower, Costa Group, has blasted the “disgraceful” state of the nation’s energy market after fears of summer blackouts forced the company to spend millions of dollars on back-up generators to protect its crops around the country.
Harry Debney, the head of ASX-listed horticulture giant Costa Group, said the company had installed back-up generators to protect crops from a disruption to energy supplies in a number of states.
“It’s a disgraceful situation,” Mr Debney said. “We’re so concerned. There’s a lack of reliability, which is even more important than the cost, because if you’re out of production it just really hurts you very badly.”
His concerns were echoed by ASX-listed Alumina Limited which, along with Alcoa owns the majority of western Victoria’s Portland aluminium smelter, and warned that long-term outages could be damaging. Last week Coca-Cola Amatil boss Alison Watkins likened the situation to one the company would face in developing countries like Papua New Guinea while Bluescope has also raised concerns.
In response, the Federal Government is building gold-plated bandaids — spending bazillions to build Snowy 2.0 which will burn up and waste 20 – 30% of the electricity fed into it, but smooth out some of the unreliable supply. Minister Angus Taylor, squarely blames Victoria for “the speed at which the Victorian government was seeking to introduce renewable energy into market – a renewables target of 50 per cent by 2030 – without the baseload capacity to support it.”
Meanwhile, the Victorian Government is in deep denial
Apparently what the nation needs is a joint headlong rush into wind and solar.
Victoria’s energy minister, Lily D’Ambrosio, said the the country was lacking “any type of federal leadership when it comes to energy policy”.
“Victoria is investing in renewable energy to put more power into the grid and drive down power prices,” she said. “We stand ready to work with the Commonwealth, whenever they are interested in being constructive on this vital issue.”
If we only had more of the same thing that caused high prices and reckless instability we could get low prices and a reliable supply?
h/t Dave B
Lily D’ambrosio gets the absolutely wrong end of the stick….deliberately? Or just plain ignorant of energy realities?
320
When in trouble, just blame the opposition and their failure to stop you.
310
Its ok, mu genyrata is workin good ….
( pidgin english, given the topic…..)
170
Nearly Steve!
“Masin wokim pawa”
110
🙂
Lily D’Ambrosio em e tok rubis.
Improvements welcomed.
120
Oli Callim “pekpek bilong bulamacow”
110
Is that rude?
🙂
20
Bikpella Dan An long Viki, em i no goot.
Em i buggarup lekipowa biktime.
100
Makes me nostalgic for PNG. At PNGUT the power seemed to stay up ok most of the time in the late 1980s. After businesses started closing towards evening the fans used to spin a bit faster, until someone at ELCOM noticed and backed off the juice a bit. A bigger problem for us was protecting hard drives from earth tremours. Back then they weren’t self-parking. Critical functions were kept up with UPS boxes that sometimes ran hot enough to keep the coffee jug warm.
100
In the days before hard drives etc, I used to have comms issues maintaining telephone connections when gurias moved buildings away from where the cable (lead sheathed) entered the building.
40
Gurias?
I think I see it but?
30
At the Army Base at Kapooka there was a unit that taught pigeon English, neo Melanesian. The course ran for three weeks. After the course the students (soldiers) said they qualified as Branch Managers.
60
Guria; word for earthquake, probably Motu but commonly used in Pidgin in Papua.
60
OK.
Thought it might have derived from big gorilla shaking the building = earthquake , but obviously are no gorillas in PNG.
🙂
50
After an attempted email exchange with her , my sense was that she doesnt have much fundamental knowledge and is getting very poor advice.
250
Isn’t that typical of any politician but especially the left loons. The big question is just who are her advisers and what is their position in the green slime.
170
yarpos,
You give her too much credit.
Lily D’Ambrosio MP is a leftist loony with No Conception of the actual requirements of an electrical power grid.
She may be getting poor advice, but if she was given any Good advice, she would not listen to it. She is a danger to us all. I have written to Dopey Dan, asking for her removal, but to No Avail.
330
“Victoria is investing in renewable energy to put more power into the grid and drive down power prices,”
makes about as much sense as:-
“Victoria is raising speed limits to reduce vehicle accidents and drive down the severity of injuries”.
Then again such a statement from the Andrews ALP cult would not surprise me.
200
Paradoxically, it is indeed the faster autobahns and motorways that have the lowest accident rate. Urban myth fostered by politicians underspending on road maintenance and safety, using road and vehicle derived funds to fund other domains, using the blunt instrument of law enforcement to garner greater revenue under the illusion of wisdom and ‘safety’.
Reference source: Reference source: The International Road Traffic Accident Database. IRTAD.
100
That is fine for autobahns and motorways, i.e freeways, they are large, multilane, without intersections and engineered to a much higher standard. Where I live we are having a number of rural highways upgraded from fairly basic one lane each way to having with extra passing lanes, better intersections, dual carriageways, barriers as well as reducing bends and increasing line of sight etc. The result is lower risk at the same speed limits.
Simply increasing speed limits on the basis of some ‘article of faith’ without engineering the roads to ‘autobahn/freeway specification would still be an act of utter madness.
Not sure what your point is but the Andrews cult might just take it that speed limits can be raised and produce safer outcomes without any road engineering pgrades. The problem is what the fundamentalist ideologues will make of technical propositions. These loons just love to (mis)quote ‘experts’. It fuels their righteous sanctimony and ossifies their thinking.
40
Agree Latus. Lived in Germany for a while, spending weekends meandering the countryside with a big Merc. The drivers there are very, very good, the road surfaces and layouts excellent, so it was a breeze driving there. In general I believe the drivers in the UK, USA and Canada are far better than in Australia, and I always feel safer driving in these countries.
20
Germany has limits on many motorways and also specific fast Autobahn sections. It would be interesting to know if they are talking about Germany overall or just the Autobahns. The days of open slather speed in Germany are numbered I think. Seems incongruous given their plunge in windpower and all the hand wringing about CO2 emissions. Those guys thundering down the fast lane are certainly burning fuel just for fun 🙂
10
The Left’s answer is always more of what doesn’t work. I think there’s a definition based on that sort of thinking.
240
“Minister Angus Taylor, squarely blames Victoria for “the speed at which the Victorian government was seeking to introduce renewable energy into market – a renewables target of 50 per cent by 2030 – without the baseload capacity to support it.””
Duh – what about the Federal Govt’s outrageous LRET legislation that mandates that vast subsidies (taken from electricity consumers via hidden charges on their electricity bills) be given to ‘renewables generators’ (via the sale of ‘Large Scale Renewable certificates on an artificial ‘market’ created for just this this purpose).
This complicated and devious subsidy scheme has numerous ill effects on the essential base load generators, including denying them around 30% of their sales volume, forcing them to reduce output in favour of energy from ‘renewables’ when the wind blows and/or the sun shines, resulting in their greatly reduced profitability, despite them generating elecricity at the lowest actual, unsubsidised cost of any generator type.
Any rational person would have called for the LRET scheme to be abandoned asap. Ergo, the federal government isn’t rational regarding our electricity system.
310
Do not forget the history here. The Abbott government was elected with a landslide majority to abolish the carbon taxes. But there was also a protest vote which gave Clive Palmer the balance of power in the senate. Clive Palmer had campaigned as to the right of the coalition.
Al Gore from the other side of the world then somehow persuaded Clive Palmer to “protect” the RET. Clive Palmer subsequently also protected the Rudd/Gillard/Rudd government’s reckless spending program. Was that, too, at Al Gore’s call?
80
I find it offensive that Australia should be classified as a developing nation. We are not developing. We had cheap reliable electricity. Now we have extremely expensive, unreliable power. We had a distribution network optimised for centralised power production. Now we have distributed power production destabilising the grid and rooftop solar jeopardizing pole transformers. We were 85% self sufficient for oil and associated products, now we are reduced to importing refined petroleum products, leaving our large oil shale resources untouched. Nope, we are not developing, we are regressing.
470
Brian we are developing into a developing nation by developing our electricity generation into a renewable system .
220
As I said, extremely expensive, unreliable power. Not something any developed nation should aspire to.
200
The U.S. is headed that way fast, replacing coal with sun and wind.
30
I believe that fracked gas is now replacing coal as the main energy source.
10
I guess Keating was right when he warned that we would become a banana republic. Ironic that it is the policies of the left that has led us there! I doubt Paul will agree that it is him and his ilk that are to blame..
200
Hawke and Keating brought Australia into the real world, and neither had any interest in climate change shenanigans. Barry Jones was the only zealot at the time.
80
LOL. Seriously. LOL.
You so reap what you sow. Wake up and demand, nay, elect an alternative.
But, just like in globalist sycophantic NZ, the discomfort, destitution and despair hasn’t quite yet reached ‘uncomfortable’.
To reach ‘uncomfortable’ you have to breach the MSM distortion of reality, that sensitive point when the narrative is so disengaged from reality that even the most dull witted, blinkered politician realises the foolishness of their errand, and the dullest of the electorate finally awaken to their own plight.
101
The MSM and most of the pundits won’t notice till the food in the freezer goes off. But for employers uncomfortable starts when they have to plan for periods when they will be forced to shut down production for an hour or two to tide the system over a spike in demand.
There is a limit on how much they can handle of this before having to shut down altogether.
30
Don’t forget, once we get formally classified as a ‘developing country’, we can start burning coal again, just like the other developing countries like China and India.
230
Watt’s in name? 🙂
50
Problem is the “name” too easily becomes a legal definition. Just the way the US EPA included CO2, by regulation, into the list of “pollutants “.
Cheers
Dave B
50
Exactly, Brian.
Jo’s current headline is practically an insult to Papua New Guinea. 😀
20
She should be a comedian with lines like that.
I am still waiting for any politician to tell me when power prices are going to come down due to the renewables being so much cheaper…even free! Give me a date!
These people are a disgrace!
250
It’s gone beyond a joke – well beyond.
I still think her prime moment was back on January 25, saying the following an hour or so before a large chunk of Melbourne was blacked out
140
Sorry, the golden quote was acutally
Pretty poor grammar, too!
140
Took lessons from the Iraqi information minister I think (there are no US tanks in Baghdad! as tank rolls through shot behind him)
The spin after the seemingly inevitable blackouts will be something to behold. Perhaps they will bring Weatherdill on as a consultant?
170
Yarpos, now, like then, the media wanted to believe him to deride the POTUS.
20
It’s going to be interesting to watch when The Grid goes down
… and stays down.
There will be a lot of deaths. No food brings on riots very fast.
130
there will not be any really determined effort to secure our power availability untill the candle supply is exhausted…
100
Oh yes, wonderful. Just like the UK. Renewable energy policy has ADDED £340 per household pa accordingly to a recent report (GWPF)
50
A classic Newspeak phase….
10
These people are voted in, so ultimately it is the public majority who put them in who are the ones to blame.
10
Unfortunately you are often given a choice between a gullible fool and a gullible idiot.
50
I tried to get her to explain the mechanism by which power prices would be reduced. I never got an answer that addressed the question. I got a response from some lackeys talking a lot about Germany and seeming to say that Germany is Australia and Germany doesnt really have some of the most expensive energy in the first world.
20
I believe Snowy 2.0 has already blown out its budget, from $2bn now $5bn, and I’m guessing that it won’t stop there.
110
What budget? It was never costed let alone justified. It was another edict of Lord Malcolm. A monument to his power and Green credentials. It can sit idle like the Labor party’s Desalination plants and Victoriastan’s $800million north south pipe line and Gillard’s Pink Batts. No one actually cares whether any of this stuff is ever used.
280
It’s a wonder he did not just order the construction of a giant Pyramid. At least it might bring the tourists. And an effigy of Lord Malcolm of Turnbull. And Lucy should get her own smaller pyramid.
170
Not such a bad idea, though I’m not sure the great Aussie sphincter would be as big a tourist attraction as the Sphinx.
180
Now that’s an open and shut argument.
130
https://reneweconomy.com.au/snowy-2-0-will-not-produce-nearly-as-much-electricity-as-claimed-we-must-hit-the-pause-button-84279/
RTWT
50
Fantasists, such as the innumerate zealots at RenewEconomy, who advocate for sporadic power generation in blithe disregard of the impossibility of its ever delivering anything in cooee of the 24-7-365 reliability it is purported to be able to supplant have surely lost all standing to have their deliberations taken seriously in the real world; who cares what they say about Snowy 2 for they can only be right by accident!
70
Just heard this on Sky News Rob. Apparently the new estimate of $5.1bn doesn’t include key costs such as transmission lines, so over $10bn sounds possible. Should pull the pin on this project right now.
90
Snowy 2 does not produce electricity. All hydro electricity schemes are net users and Snowy 2 has a turn around efficiency of 72% at maximum output. So each MWh of delivered energy from the stored water requires 1.4 MWh input energy to pump the water in the first place. And that doesn’t include transmission system losses! Then there is the intractable problem of how to operate it. It can only either pump water uphill or release water to generate power, so what is the decision process for pumping versus releasing water. Basically it can’t be done because no matter what you do, at some point you either run out of water or have no capacity to pump more water. A pumped hydro scheme can work very well off-peak pumping to deliver peak power (all known times of the day) but not in any other configuration. BTW, behind Snowy 2 is a vast expense to come to build new high voltage transmission lines across the country. The whole thing is insane and shouldn’t be built.
140
Nothing new here aside from public recognition of the problem by industry. I guess this may help the general public realise the Furphy being sold by the renewables advocates. This really needs to be combined with the information about yesterday’s Alice Springs blackout todrive the point home.
100
Germany found out they need coal, that all renewable with no base-load could never work. Looks like Australia found the same thing but the government will not admit it. Time for a new election?
140
What would a new election do? Labor, Liberal… there is virtually nothing between them, and the candidates are chosen based on their ability to toe the party line, so it is difficult to see a way out of having predominately selfish ignorant, if not outright anti-scientific money-grubbers who have never felt what it’s like to not know if they will still have a job next week, or next month, or to feel what it’s like to face the repercussions of bad business decisions or mistakes.
170
Labor promised to up the RET. That would have turbo-charged the price of LGCs; encouraged investment in more grid scale intermittent and ensured more rapid economic demise of coal power station. All combined, would have sent electricity prices into the stratosphere. Be thankful that there is a Liberal government. We can only hope that sanity prevails.
Declaring a federal climate emergency would indicate the dingbats have control.
110
..the dingbats have FULL control…
Lunacy rules as usual. ABC today news article about how people are moving out to suburbs (cheaper housing?) and defaulting on their power bills..wonder why..any answers, green loontards?
80
The ABC will blame it and everything on coal.
30
ABC: Australia’s Been Conned
NBC: Noozuld’s Been Conned
WTF: self-explanatory.
30
I have my three generators ready for the summer.
As for the Victorian having a free shot at the Federal government, it was the Victorian government which forced the closure of Hazelwood while it was working at 98% capacity and is now trying to force the closure of Loy Yang and is secretly subsidizing Alcoa in Portland at $80,000 pa per worker.
The Federal government does not generate electricity. It’s the State Governments notably South Australia and Victoria trying to shut down generation, subsidizing solar panels directly and stopping grazing in the high mountains, forestry and back burns and clearance of private property of fire hazards. And out to dinner in the middle of one of the worst bushfires in our history. It was the Tasmanian government which sold off all the water from their hydro scheme for Victorian cash, only to ensure that the farmers had none when the rains did not come.
We are captive of money hungry and destructive Green bureaucrats at State and Council level. Meanwhile the Socialist Republic of Melbourne is planning to ban cars from the city, having already turned our major roads into a car park. Doing their bit to save the planet by making car travel impossible.
I suppose they think we will have another cute Amsterdam. Everyone on bicycles. Candles in the dark. How romantic.
And blame the Federal Government for not stopping them.
241
And the South Australian government should have their own independent giant diesel generators. So they can have jobs when everyone else is out of work. The state would come to a halt without administrators and the essential work they do.
And the Australian Submarine Corporation should have their own giant diesel generator by now so they can keep making diesel submarines which can travel very slowly if we are invaded, as long as the invaders bring some diesel. Green submarines. Sometime in the next 30 years.
Plus Whyalla should soon have their own power supply, so they can keep making steel when the windmills stop blowing and the vats don’t freeze solid. What’s not to like about a wind and solar driven state?
200
Three!!
I only bought one to keep the lights and fridges/freezers running. I have tested it the past few weeks to make sure it runs well and have tested when power has been cut due to local line work and during the blackout last January.
110
… one to run the homestead …
… one to run the freezers
… one to run the air conditioning
… sounds reasonable to me.
If EVs had been forced on the populace, he would need a fourth one to charge the car …:-)
120
I’m only allowing for minimal late ’60s style expectations. As long as I can grab a cool drink and ice, I can cope without aircon and the lights will let me read a book. That said, the NBN was still providing internet during the January blackout so I do have some scope for second millenium living.
70
Im looking at used coffee grounds to make my own biofiel…which might be a problem if cafes dont have any power….
50
Keep some fireflies in a jar for illumination.
70
My great uncle in Brasil, arrived from Germany c.1910 and carved out a place for himself in the jungle. A nearby stream and crude waterwheel attached to a simple dynamo generated enough power for a single bulb, enabling him to read in the tropical night. What more could one ask for? A few less insects probably.
However, having altered land usage and atmospheric composition by the invasive imposition of his white supremacist colonisation of the pristine natural environment he wreaked UNFCCC defined, ‘climate change’ and laid waste a part of virginal Gaia.
Lends you meaning to a biblical quote, all the rage in churches these eco-days of St Ingrate.
By the sins of our fathers’ so we will be judged.
50
Yay, and thusly, for seven generations!
So sayeth Santa Ignoramus the Turnip-Swede.
01
How do modern electronics such as the latest TVs cope with the generator outputs? No problems?
50
Just make sure the generator is a “pure sine wave” one and it’s all good.
60
Or you could buy a decent pure sine wave inverter and battery and use the genny to charge the battery/ use battery as a buffer.
70
I have two generators and if needed I have a 3000 watt inverter in the fourbie which is connected to three batteries but can add two more from the camper .
That way I can run pretty much everything when needed .
20
Thanks for the comments gents. Was just wondering.
20
Graeme#4
If you are shopping for one, get yourself a 1000 or 2000 inverter model by that Japanese name beginning with H. They are incredibly quiet and efficient. You won’t run the AC with these sizes but you’ll be fine with the fridge and electronics work well with them.
I also have a 7500watt setup for whole house outages and just a few years ago had to run it for 4 days due to a major wind event and subsequent tree/power line damage.
Incidentally, the aforementioned 1000inverter set is able to run our natural gas forced air furnace. We are set even in our nasty winters.
10
” Candles in the dark. How romantic.”
Maybe, but this might be a better picture of the move from electricity to candles.
From back in the days of pack horse mail runs in this area, back pre-esky and ice.If the mail left Monday the meat wasn’t too good by Wednesday. So, if there were passengers, the announcement of that meal was “dinner by firelight”.
30
[…] FROM JO NOVA. WE HAVE A THIRD WORLD POWER SYSTEM. AND IT WILL GET WORSE BEFORE IT GETS BETTER. Australia’s biggest fruit and vegetable […]
40
Get rid of the RET and Zimmerbumble…..
90
RET = Reduced Electricity Technology. For those that dont really need electricity…
40
The PNG article, together with some data from Tony-from-Oz helped me formulate this contribution that I sent to my State and Federal members:
…
” It seems silly to me that we are giving incentives to people and businesses to install solar panels to produce electricity when we least need it, causing increased prices and uncertainty of supply.
Production of power from solar panels becomes significant only after about 10 am and drops away about 4 pm, coinciding closely with the period of minimum demand, year round. And unavailable at any time of peak demand. Why? And no, the answer is not to save the planet. ”
…
The word “silly” was the best I could come up with without being profane, but feel free to use the idea of the quote, suitably modified to suit your personal taste. (There was a spelling error in my original, corrected above.)
…
Cheers
Dave B
120
David, did you get any of that wet stuff falling from the sky this week?
The Most UN-Holy Church of the BøM had little moist, pale-blue dabs of ‘rain’ flickering across your patch of the map, but hey, whadda they know, they’re calling for SNOW down on the NSW/VIC border on/off the next 3 days, along with thunderstorms, hail, sub-zero temps, the works. Crisis? What $#@X crisis!
http://www.bom.gov.au/nsw/forecasts/thredbo.shtml
50
Thanks for asking Greg,
Over the past week I’ve had 3 mms to midday yesterday when I left for town, where we’ve had another 1 mm overnight. Not flooded in yet.
Those blobs passed to the north and south of me largely. On that BoM radar display my house is just about on the north eastern edge of the “M” of Mudgee.
Cheers
Dave B
30
4 mm? Tis the Flood! Must be a great place to grow grapes, cin cin!
Before-and-after pics of Mt Buller (south of the border) with a fresh dusting of carbon pollution fallout today:
https://www.snow-forecast.com/resorts/Mount-Buller/webcams/latest
If you scroll down the above page, there’s a pic/link to Cardrona Ski Area in the South Island: shiploads of snow and sunshine and a few hardcore spring skiers still out enjoying the
catastrophecrisisendless winter bliss…20
Zut Alors!
20
Every day I learn something new here at Jo’s Café 🙂
10
. . . like a developing nation . . .
Say it ain’t so.
Just so you know, we care!
As long as OZ keeps making Drover’s coats, Snowy River hats, boomerangs, and didgeridoos, . . .
. . . the Nation will be fondly thought of by those in the wild lands of the Pacific Northwest of the USA.
Okay, some of your wines are pretty good, too!
100
All are probably made in China…..
10
The eye of Cyclone Marcia passed directly over Rockhampton at around 1PM on Friday 20th February 2015, after five hours of a continuous build up of howling wind. The eye lasted around 40 minutes and then it blew again, howling, (but less than on the approach) from the opposite direction, and by 5PM or so, it was just a strong breeze.
The power went off at around 10AM during the approach, and at our home, we were without power for five days and long nights in hot, humid and still conditions.
We managed surprisingly well really.
Three things with respect to electricity stood out for me.
I had an old Transistor radio I purchased new in December of 1968 (National Panasonic R247JB) and still used on a daily basis, powered by three D Cells, and I get 5 to 6 Months use out of the batteries, so that was our contact with the outside World, other than the land line which did not go down, and luckily on that front as well, we had one of those old phones to plug into the phone outlet.
(First Lesson, unscheduled arisings) First thing Saturday morning, we were out on the back covered patio, where we virtually lived for those five long hot days. I had already started the cleanup of the Golden Canes, and after an hour or so of that, I was having a cup of Earl Grey at 7AM, and listening to the radio, the local ABC, who I must say were quite good for the duration, even if they did concentrate on some trendy things a little too much. However, around 7AM, they broadcast a desperate (and I mean desperate, repeating the call, virtually every second minute) call for diesel, a truck load in fact. This was for the local (quite large in fact) Base Hospital, and they were ‘running on empty’ for the auxilliary power supply, and needed diesel pretty quickly or the hospital would lose power. They got that truck load of diesel within half an hour, thankfully, and it made me think as to how poorly planned something like that was, that they had backup auxilliary power to run the hospital, but it seems, only on a short term basis, thinking that any power failure would be of short duration, and when there was something of this scale, then, as it was now almost 24 hours, the supply of fuel became something not planned for on that full time basis. Still, you learn from these things I guess.
(Second Lesson – Huge losses) The second thing was late on Saturday evening, I ventured out in the car, mainly looking for of all things a loaf of bread. The local large Mall (the huge Stockland Mall) was locked up tight in all the main entrances. I cruised around the whole complex and found one door open at the furthest rear part of the Mall. A young man in a Woolies shirt came out and here it was 5.30PM, so he was on his way home. I asked him if Woolies was open and he said ‘just’ and I quizzed him about the bread and he said that they did have that, and then he was off. Woolies was the only place with power, and as I found out, so was the Coles at the far end of the complex. They had a skeleton staff working and I asked how they were going. They were using the Mall’s backup auxilliary power, as was Coles, but these were the only shops open in the whole complex. The person in Woolies I was talking with asked me what I wanted, Bread, and she showed me where. I also asked some questions as to how long they had been open, and she said all day. Around ten of them had come into work, as the whole complex was warned not to come in late on the Thursday night, and the call went out to anyone on Saturday morning who could come in. She told me that they spent all day, clearing out EVERY cold storage and fridge, all into skip bins, all of it, literally tens of thousands of dollars worth of goods. She said they would be opening at 9AM on the Sunday morning. I was there at 8.30 and they were already open. All the bread was gone, and I did get three bags of ice. The whole shelving area where they stored their batteries was empty, as I expected, but I knew the place I actually could get some batteries, not for me as I was stocked up ready, but our daughter needed some and I just waited for The Reject Shop to open and got what they needed, and I heard that they sold out of batteries within half an hour of opening, and they had heaps.
(Third Lesson – Irony) Tuesday afternoon, day four. My good lady wife and I just wanted a Cappucino and to sit in the cool for an hour or so, so off we went to Stockland and our coffee outlet of choice, one of seven coffee outlets in that Mall. The Mall was jam packed solid, and I have never seen it that crowded. We got our coffees , ended up having two of them in fact and stayed almost two hours in the air conditioned mall. However, virtually every person in the place was lined up at power outlets, charging all manner of phones and devices, and people in the lower level car park were walking up the moving walkways to the ground floor, arms loaded with laptops pads etc. Every second shop in the mall had a sign in the window inviting people in to use their power outlets for that purpose. They were everywhere, even in the toilets waiting to use those power points. The whole Mall had been packed out solid all day for basically just this purpose, and the food court did a roaring trade for the whole day, and they stayed open till 9PM all week in fact.
Another lesson was the poor form of some people. The Highway needed power for the traffic lights at around five of the major Highway intersections. The local Authority put out generators at these intersections to power the traffic lights. Overnight on that first Saturday night, four of these generators were stolen. The second night, they chained and padlocked them, and the following morning two of them were gone. After that a Police car was in residence all night at each intersection.
We take that supply of electrical power so UTTERLY for granted without the slightest knowledge of how it is delivered to those ‘holes in the walls’. People are then misinformed at virtually every turn that we need to do without the ONLY supply of power which actually is reliable, and more importantly, CAPABLE of delivering the huge amounts of power to run the country, 18,000MW at the daily minimum, every day.
People are dumbfounded if the power is off for minutes, let alone hours and days even, as in the case of this Cyclone, but imagine if you will, if that power is gone on a longer term basis.
The will be anarchy. There WILL be anarchy.
Tony.
401
Yup. Thick headed and foolush Leftists stupidly sneer at firearm ownership, but as the LA riots showed, you were armed, or you were fair game.
Now imagine no power, no phones, no food……
Who will get through it safely?
160
Preper Steve,
Have you actually looked at gun stats over there ?
Only war zones have a higher per capita gun related death rate
216
Interestingly, London, which has basically banned guns, has a higher murder rate than New York, but using knives instead.
I guess we could just use our fingers to eat with…..
140
Oddly enough the greentards state of Californiastan has the toughest firearm laws in America but has the highest homicide rate .
100
Wikipedia disagrees.
However, California embarked on a large scale exercise in rolling blackouts. They don’t quite roll yet, it is days before power comes back.
60
CA will fall into the East Pacific soon…Well thats what those on the East coast say, I was actually told when I was there once..;)
10
Illinois, specifically Chicago would be a better example
20
I have and absent suicide their per capita numbers arent that amazing and ceratinly not warzone material.
10
Gun stats over here? 10’s of MILLIONS of them! I have 10 for each of us at home and a few spread out in places you’ll never know. Best of all I have 1000’s of rounds of ammo.
Only trespassers or people that cause me to fear for the life of my family members need be concerned. My neighbor and I have code words to be yelled if necessary. Interestingly, we don’t see a lot of Antifa around here. Also there is no bus line nearby.
20
I do struggle to see how this relates to Tony’s comment. At least those wanting to discuss it with him found some clear air. Speaking of commentus interuptus, where is he?
01
Wow she says that like it is a swear word.
The kind that runs out of water and food. Comes to your door with a dainty un-calloused hand reaching out.
20
Yep. Energy usage is all about gun control or something leftist
111
More guns will stop that.
14
Guns in the right hands!!
40
Not civilians.
03
Glen,
Its an arms race, I would just get an RPG to protect myself from ‘the nutters’.
11
A thermonuclear device maybe better.
30
“Not civilians”
Right and history is replete with examples of non civilians doing what is best for the civilians.
Stupid idea.
20
‘Stupid idea.’
The US struggles with mass shootings, China doesn’t have that problem.
02
The US “struggles” with mass peacefulness. We in the US haven’t yet had a murderous dictator.
China today struggles with ethnic and religious persecution. There are rumors of people from these ethnic groups “disappearing”.
Thanks for the, um, comparison.
30
And Mark, let’s not forget the war with Vietnam post 1975.
A ferocious bit of “discussion” that ended with Chyna wiping it’s bloodied nose.
KK
20
Putting in a plug for the celestial kingdom.
‘China has one of the strictest gun ownership regulations in the world. Generally, private citizens are not allowed to possess firearms.’ W
10
Private citizens are indeed very well controlled in China
30
When it comes to guns they are strict, gangsterism is rife.
10
Do you think for one minute that any mass shooting in China would get to see the main stream news?
20
Good observations Tony. The hospital comment is disturbing but a large reserve of fuel does require greater attention to ensure it remains fresh. You would reasonably expect protocols to be in place for that.
110
Preparation? Worst case scenario? They don’t teach that in
BusinessumEconomicsum Climate Gender Studies do they?100
Imagine a war scenario. No supplies of diesel anywhere in the country. Everyone running on diesel. Tanks, submarines, government.
And whoever attacked us would wait for the wind to drop and walk right in. We are defenceless. No power, no phones, no communication, no idea. And a system so fragile it cannot survive a natural disaster let alone a targeted one. And out solar panels used largely to heat swimming pools.
Take out the few coal fired power stations and we are utterly hopeless.
It is a papier mache country run by leftists. And the Extinction Rebellion could not survive a day without mobile phones and coffee and public transport.
200
Who needs foreign student spies when you’ve got elected public servants… and someone called ‘Lily’.
180
Foreign students make very bad spies..no govt would invest in unreliable foreign student to spy, no experience, NO cover, no training…Laughable.
You dont need foreign students to do dirty spying work..there’s plenty of professionals already doing it. And they are right up there in top level positions..
30
‘ And out solar panels used largely to heat swimming pools.’ I cant understand the total insanity of using visible spectrum-converted to electric energy- converted to heat via an electric element to heat water..The Sun does a wonderful job supplying IR which will heat water directly! (its called a Solar hot water system you can actually buy them!)
30
And therein lies another problem.
On the Saturday morning immediately following the day of the Cyclone, I was in the front yard cleaning up the bent Golden Canes, and our neighbour from across the road came over and we were discussing the ‘blow’.
He said that while we were without power like everyone else, at least we would have hot water, as our Rental home had a large Solar Panel on the roof for just that, the hot water system.
I then had to explain to him that that was not the case at all.
So, even though we had that large panel, one of the trendy new fangled solar hot water systems, you know with just the large panel on the roof to heat up the water, there still had to be a way to get the water from the large tank at the back of our home up to the panel, and then back down to the tank again, and, umm, that was via an ….. electric pump.
So, power outage, no solar hot water.
There was an electric operation for the hot water system anyway, umm, mandated by the authority, so pretty much a totally useless solar hot water system.
Tony.
30
Yes.. the electric pump part, good point.
20
G’day Tony,
One aspect you haven’t mentioned, as I experienced in a local blackout, is that service stations become unable to pump any fuel. And shops become unable to process electronic payments. I got caught needing fuel for both my vehicle and my saws on the day. Luckily the outage was measured in hours, not days.
Cheers
Dave B
40
We need removal of communists and greenists from political office, as they present a clear and present danger to democracy and our way of life.
McCarthy was right to remove communists from any position of power, as he clearly understood the danger they pose to society in general.
As australia unnecessarily breaks down , we need to direct the blame to where it lies – any politician who supports the greenist agenda….
Then let the public deal with them….
120
Your alarmist approach is hype, the Greens are a rump and Labor is moving towards the centre right position on climate change, at the federal level.
Of course we have the Climate Emergency, a Green/Labor coalition, but its virtue signalling of the highest order and doomed to fail.
The Premier of Victoria has signed a memorandum on the belt and road, he might have communist associations.
54
McCarthys approach was sensible.
Whether the communists are the designers or just the thugs doing the dirty work, they are still a significant problem.
60
I’m a utopian socialist and will accept nothing less than three star accommodation in the Simpson Desert. No barbed wire necessary.
10
It’s always nice watching politicians plying their trade, even when the PNG comment could be applied with equal accuracy, to all of our Australien parliaments.
Todays award for world class ditherers goes to our political class.
/Trump and Johnson for me, at least the have policies, and implement them
102
You forgot Hillarys “export”, that is ruining our power grid…..
140
Yep, the politicians KNOW that they need to build at least one extra new RELIABLE power station in each state (ie HELE coal), but this idiotic anti-CO2 agenda ia holding them back from doing what absolutely needs to be done
Same with water storage.
The Green agenda has a lot to answer for in the problems that Australia is facing.
150
Andy – they were elected several times, and they have the power, how are they being held back? 6 years in Federal, and 8 years for NSW. in that time, all we have seen is dithering. Blame them, they have had a free pass for way too long
/Trump and Johnson for me, at least the have policies, and implement them
46
Because of Turnbull and his fellow leftist sycophants, that is why
Liberals have been heavily infected with the leftist climate anti-CO2 disease.
Just like you have been.
121
Not sure the Feds can do much if the states don’t want it , just look at the Dam situation although much of that can also be blamed on green tape
40
btw, PF, it is great to see you advocating for NO MORE wind and solar.
Advocating for removing all subsidies, and all feed-in mandates.
Great to see you advocating for COAL FIRED ELECTRICITY . 🙂
111
As surely as conservation, thrift and national security matter…
We must not merely ban all renewables, except conventional hydro, for mainstream power purposes, we must dismantle what has been installed. All of it. In the wake of a war or disaster, you take away the rubble and rebuild, now matter how heartbreaking the cost. All must go.
Lastly, diesel must have a defined purpose as back-up for small purposes only. Absolutely no mainstream power ever from diesel, on national security grounds which should be obvious (can’t help if it’s not obvious to the wasters and plunderers of Big Green).
Yes, I’m being perfectly serious. Dismantle and take it all way.
Then it’s back to coal, modernised from pit to switch. Because this is Australia.
220
mosomoso,
have a look at this on wind power dismantling. Note that they only dig down 4 metres so those concrete footings and internal plant wiring gets to stay there in the ground.
I was curious as to the costing for one wind plant in Minnesota, also leaving the footings etc, and it was over half a million dollars (U.S.) for each single tower.
Extrapolating that out, it effectively means that the dismantling cost comes in at the total income for total generated power sold to the grid from the wind plant for the last six Months of its life.
Wind Turbine Math Does Not Add Up
Tony.
170
Thanks for another great PA Pundits link.
Yes, Tony, wind dismantlement will be at crippling cost. It may be that the concrete basing will be the last phase of removal and done only when/if it can ever be afforded. Still, symbolism matters and the shame of renewables will burn till they are out of sight.
Big Green has been the child of plunder, debt and money-conjuring. As the world advances to the final absurdity of negative interest we need to take a stand and use debt (since that’s all there is now) to get our magnificent coal resources back on track for national usage. (Export is the business of somebody’s business, domestic consumption is my business and the business of Australia.)
100
Big Green is a demon-child!
80
The big turbines being installed these days require around 60 truckloads of concrete. There is no way these bases will ever be removed – they will remain forever blighting our landscape.
120
On a location but not MY location note, there appears to be very few wind turbines operating in the “clean,green” Northern Rivers district of NSW. NIMBYism for you.
60
lacking “any type of federal leadership when it comes to energy policy”.
THIS is what happens when you ‘blow up’ perfectly good power stations.
190
Victoria is Daniel Andrewstan.
60
If it weren’t a tragedy it’d be hilarious. Apparently growth is slow in Australia. Look to the causes:
Unreliable power! That ought to be a joke, but the country is being run by jokers, so it is not.
Regulation! You’d think our elected officials believe GDP is properly measured directly from the size of the statute book, rather than inversely.
110
We need to start demanding the removal of incompetents.
100
My sentiments exactly but clearly that’s not going to happen, not until the fire-storm has done its job of waking Australian up from their drunken stupor.
110
You have hit the nail on the head (actually two nails). Things will continue the way they are until someone yells FIRE! By that time it will be too late but at least we can hope the fire-bugs (Greenies, leftists, Extinction Rebellion crowd, etc.) will shutdown or else treated like terrorists if they continue with their stupid ways. We are not there yet.
110
We will be there when the blackouts start in earnest
20
I’m not sure if we can call them leftists any more. I rather call them either insane or passive terrorists. It depends on the individual. In any case they should be removed from position no matter where they are in the interest of national security. Food, water and energy are the three most vital foundations for a stable and secure nation. If any one of them is neglected the nation will crash and burn. At the moment all three are being let down. Need I say more?
91
The sensible Federal Liberals have been in power for 6 years now. What have they done? If you are sheeting home blame, start at the top and work downwards. As I said, we have an PNG level of Politics, and they are the ones misusing their power.
/Trump and Johnson for me, at least the have policies, and implement them
73
Its all Talcum’s fault, Morrison is in charge now.
61
Therefore, it’s now Morrison’s fault. Well not exactly since the states have to take most of the blame.
100
The Guardian thinks its Morrison’s fault and his belief in a deity won’t save him.
20
Yes, and Palychook does nothing for QLD. Bla bla bla bla, lets get ‘seen’ at the lattest sport thingy or at some hard hat wearing convention…lefty idiot media lapping it up.
30
and the senate. Don’t forget the senate.
40
Trump yes. Johnson no – he is a watermelon (green on the outside ,red in the middle) – his policies are going to make electric power in the UK as expensive as Germany and as reliable as Victoria in a blackout.
80
Yes, the UK is in a sorry state in respect of its surrender to green policies –let’s not forget the poor benighted toff David Cameron even had a wind turbine installed on his house.
60
And needs to grow some !
Forget the yabbering from the far-left ABC, just get on with it. !!
And you are being deceitful yet again PF
There was several years of the Turnbull Party, which was not the real Liberal party
72
Turnbull piloted a new fashion of electoral material without Liberal Party branding and Sarah Henderson followed his example in her failed Corangamite bid (and is now in the Senate courtesy of Fifield’s vacating it for the UN).
50
I’m with Ivan on Boris, the man is a watermelon, whereas Farage is the consumant politician and well organised to become the next PM.
You must be pleased that China will reach its emissions target next year, just like Australia. Much amusement.
https://www.chinadaily.com.cn/a/201910/09/WS5d9d3eb6a310cf3e3556f56e.html
91
Text accompanying photo of the Forbidden City:
“Blue sky is seen in Beijing, China, Sept 18, 2019”. That’s almost a month ago – nothing since?
“China more than halved power plant emissions of sulphur dioxide, nitrogen oxide and particulate matter. The three pollutants all contribute to the formation of smog, which is linked to health problems”. How come woke activists in the West never mention the ‘three smogs’?
Study by: “China’s Continuous Emission Monitoring Systems network… University College London… Cambridge University in the UK… supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences and China’s Ministry of Ecology and Environment”.
40
Probably for the same reason that in NZ the sky is almost always peachy clear, yet there is a the UNFCCC sanctioned “problem.”
30
Beijing doesn’t recognise CO2 as a pollutant.
50
What have they done? Very little I’m afraid and that’s the real issue. We can say for certain Shorten would have been a disaster if his party was elected to government, but lack of action on the part of Morrison’s government can and is being almost as bad. Australia is drunk with past successes of the Howard years and is still stumbling along the edge of the cliff. Sooner or later things will turn nasty unless real action is done right now, not in years to come. Personally I feel it’s too late. The fire has started and we are not far from a fire-storm.
161
So true Peter very well put .
40
I think the greenist nazis are threaded through both parties, the Left however, is drunk on power but is losing all sense of restraint.
Im confident there will be a Climate Nuremberg-like Trial, as unless the greenists butcher a big chunk of the population soon, once the public finally works things out, there will be no where to hide…..
60
Correct. There are still too many lefties in the LNP. Most of the rest are too soft. I can only count on one hand the true blue Libs. The Nats are useless and the rural areas are now convinced of that so they should be history at the next election.
70
Look, 8 years in NSW, and 6 Federally – and what is to show. All foam and no coffee, best describes this mob. How long do they have to be in charge, before they get a policy?
71
Too long I’m afraid. At least we’ve kept out the other lot who would have put into place policies that would lead this nation more quickly to ruin. The current mob at least gives me more time to prepare for the coming fire-storm.
110
OUTLINE or better DESCRIBE YOUR policy.
Go on; can you? Are you able to?
Do you wish to?
Advance your vision or decline and retreat.
If the latter, then shut up.
40
Hunh – Firstly I’m not a politician. Secondly I don’t give a fig what the policies are – I just want to see some and see them implemented. This is like standing at a checkout, watching someone count out 19.95 worth of 5 cent pieces.
Srsly – are you going to double dare me?
/Trump and Johnson for me, at least they have policies, and implement them
32
PF wants good new RELIABLE COAL-FIRED electricity
He knows its the ONLY choice. !
60
‘ … before they get a policy?’
They have a policy, no more renewable subsidies.
71
And replace them with????
/All foam, no coffee.
05
New coal fired power stations, Beijing has some fantastic deals going.
90
Can I look that up anywhere? the policy not the deals in mean.
when will these new coal powered plant come on line?
Will it be before the next election?
/the only policy I can see is to win at all costs.
13
The Feds are sitting on their hands and watching the looney green left go ballistic. The government now has a big stick to use against the gougers, the free marketeers.
Anyway, this is the way it’ll go.
https://utilitymagazine.com.au/energyaustralia-commits-to-lithgow-region-with-mt-piper-upgrades/
30
So there is no policy, and the ‘big stick’. As we are seeing with the Banks, token fines, no redress for the victims, all froth and no coffee
Please come back with something concrete in the policy department, or admit that this pack of relentless self promoters have no idea how to develop, and implement any policies at all
11
The policy is to let the states decide what form of energy they want, the federal government will underwrite new coal fired power stations.
The free enterprise model in the looming recession will be Keynes with a twist and the big stick is a characteristic of Australian socialism.
20
“All foam and no coffee, best describes this mob”
Describes your HERO, Turnbull, you mean PF !!
Its the mouthy and rabid greenie agenda, that your represent, that is causing all the problems.
50
If only I had a dollar for each time I heard that line trolled out by a Labor or Greens polly…
Unfortunately for the Greens and ALP, the real issue is not policy but their chosen RE technology. I recall years ago when we were first pushed onto the RE journey, the technical limitations of powering a grid with wind and solar were often discussed, but the standard green response was always that new technology not yet developed would miraculously come to the rescue and solve all of the intermittency problems. Since that time we have seen geo-thermal, tidal, wave and solar-thermal all pan out as unmitigated disasters, with billions of tax dollars wasted as expected. In more recent times they turned to batteries as the last salvation, but new battery technology takes many decades to develop and we are still stuck with lithium technology with nothing else on the 10-20 year horizon. The cost of these batteries is enormous at grid scale and despite the repetitive green line that dirt cheap batteries are always just around the corner, Tesla actually increased it’s Powerwall price by around $3K making an expensive product even more expensive and putting the battery myth to bed.
I’m sure almost every reader of this blog, minus the few desperate trolls, has predicted this energy outcome exactly as it’s played out because it was always so obvious. There was no other possible outcome beneath the fake green spin. To make matters worse, the states have pre-sold off their gas reserves to offshore interests to plug their large deficits, leaving us with a local gas shortage and resulting in crazy prices and with no light at the end of the gas tunnel. Thus, if you want affordable and reliable grid energy any time soon we have a choice between coal and coal, which ironically is the same as it was before we created this mess. Worse still, with nothing else left to power the nation, the Greens wish to ban all coal, even the mining.
What is a bit predictable today and perhaps ironical, is that as the voting masses wake up to the RE failings and push back, the green zealots are now trying to take their circus to a new level with the climate emergency and XR protests. The irony here is that if they did implement their own policies it will certainly result in their extinction, along with the rest of us.
100
The real emergency is energy not climate. We need a government that will act accordingly. Perhaps after the next election the LNP will need the support of ON to form government who have a policy to implement low cost, reliable, dispatchable power by building new low-emission coal-fired power stations.
120
The AEMO and the AER – are Federal bodies, they operate across state borders and set the rules. The states, and the private companies operate within that framework. Stop blaming the greens (who never have, and never will taste power), or Labor, as the Lib/nats in NSW, are doing exactly the same. This is a failure, like water security, which has happened on the Liberal’s watch, they have had 6 years to fix it, but as all blithers that they are, they spend all their time dithering. NBN, Energy, Resource extraction (gas in particular where we sell at ½ the price of our competitors), and water – the list grows
45
Actually that 10% of the vote seems to dictate 100% in forward planning for coal fired generation and new dams .
Liberals hamstrung because of inept leadership or gutless leadership with no vision .
Labor has totally gone green barking mad with socialism and will never build anything except maybe debt .
And the Greens (your party Fitz) are anti everything with bureaucrats brainwashed by your ideology seeming to be able to get any government minister wrapped around their little green finger .
This country needs a Trump with a vision ,someone who’s not afraid of twitter or the far left ABC and one who can sell the benefits of turning rivers around into the interior and building dams .
One who can build the coal fired or nuclear power stations while holding the middle finger up to the lefties .
But most important one who can hold a royal commission into this AGW climate scam while cleaning house with the BOM , CSIRO and the ABC .
130
I won’t hold my breath.
60
This might help understanding (/s)
“There are three types of climate change denier, and most of us are at least one”
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/16/there-are-three-types-of-climate-change-denier-and-most-of-us-are-at-least-one/
And comments
21
The greens will never even get a sniff of power, that’s a good enough reason to vote for them, rather than returning a blank ballot paper.
Srsly, when was the last time a government actually implemented any major policy? Exhibit 1. High Speed Rail. Exhibit 2. Drought protection (it’s like every drought is the first one ever)
29
They don’t have to. The green ideology is manifest across the political spectrum. Vote Australia Guard!
70
Peter, the more you say the more I think you are seriously deluded and none too smart.If you know what I mean.
60
if by deluded you really mean cynical then yes.
01
The left have lost faith in the democratic process and hanker for a dictatorship.
‘We tend to assume that democracies, over the long arc of history, work towards progress and justice. But with an issue like climate change, we’re running out of time.
‘It may come as a surprise, but at the moment, democracy may be an obstacle to the rapid action we need on climate change.’
The Conversation
20
When someone is drowning in a deep ocean (LNP+ALP) one grabs onto the life float thrown from someone else (ON) not swim the other way towards the shark (Greens).
80
Not a statesman?
FA, listen to his speeches and what he says at rallies!
We haven’t seen such a statesman since Ronald R. and the Donald is deeper in thought.
20
RR was more than a statesman, he was a man of action. Thus far Morrison is all talk but no action. Hopefully he will do the second bit soon. He better or else he’s gone.
20
‘This country needs a Trump with a vision …’
Donald is a commercial man, not a statesman, and he has no vision beyond making America great again.
Morrison is alright, a non charismatic man of the people who will bring the country together. Labor is going to pass the ‘big stick legislation’ through the senate, this is evolutionary progress.
10
The jury is still out on Morrison. His reaction the current crises (energy, food and water) will mark him for life one way or the other. With the right actions he could end up even more famous than Howard/Menzies, with the wrong actions or no action he will end up being more hated than Turnbull. It’s all up to him now. Can he pull everyone together and do the right things for the nation? Not easy. One thing would make it easier for him to do so. Farmers rallying at Canberra demanding action plus a several lengthy power blackouts across SA and Victoria with NSW on the verge. If those events don’t force Morrison into some kind of “war” action against the destructive renewables policies then nothing will and we might as well beg for China to take over who will build all the coal and nuclear power stations we need.
70
Its over Peter, renewable subsidies end in 2020 and Morrison will underwrite new coal fired power stations.
20
Only way to get the COAL -FIRED power that is needed is to leave the Parisite agreement, and dump all the anti-CO2 garbage, RET,
solar and wind have to be able to provide RELIABLE 24/7 electricity.
No fees for carbon emissions, (should be paid, because all life needs them)
Just get on with building those new coal power stations.
That’s it, isn’t it PF.
150
Morrison is still more interested in building Snowy 2.0, which is a dud. It’s now estimated it will cost at least 5bil if not double that. We could build one or two HELE plants for that and we wouldn’t have to push water up hill to generate less power than it uses. Here we are about half a trillion in debt and spending anything from 80 to 180bill on useless subs by the time are they ready yet we won’t invest in new coal powered stations to promote business growth.
60
AEMO was created by the Council of Australian Governments (COAG) and developed under the guidance of the Ministerial Council on Energy (now the Standing Council on Energy and Resources). So it’s a joint State/Federal creation, with no-one in control.
60
Have tou looked at the composition of the board? It’s surprising they would agree on anything
20
15 Oct: AFR: Former energy boss sounds $10b warning on Snowy 2.0
by Bo Seo
The cost of the government’s Snowy Hydro 2.0 scheme could blow out to $10 billion, more than double the current estimation, a report by the National Parks Association of NSW warns…
The NPA report, based on publicly available information, supplements existing estimates with contract variations, excluded costs, and an “equitable proportion” of the transmission upgrades required to deliver electricity to Sydney and Melbourne.
Its finding echoes comments by Victorian Energy Policy Centre director Bruce Mountain, who on Monday said the project was “likely to cost five times more” than the $2 billion promised by then prime minister Malcolm Turnbull.
Snowy Hydro chief executive Paul Broad hit back against the “wild figures” contained in the NPA report, which he said was not the product of independent analysis.
Mr Broad also rejected the inclusion of grid upgrades to the costs of the Snowy 2.0 project, calling them “shared services used by the power industry”.
Snowy Hydro stood by the $3.8 billion to $4.5 billion cost estimate, which was affirmed in December 2018 by the Snowy Hydro board, Macquarie Capital, two government departments and adviser Lazard.
But Mr Woodley, who led EnergyAustralia when it was a state government-owned company and is now an honorary secretary of the NPA, said the cost blowouts owed to the scale of Snowy 2.0’s engineering ambitions.
“It was clear right from the outset that the basic claims for the project were not achievable. Every time new facts have come out, it has been worse than the last time,” he said…
The NPA has long opposed the pumped hydro project on environmental grounds, claiming its impact will extend beyond the official 1680-hectare “disturbance footprint” to 10,000 hectares of Kosciuszko National Park.
https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/former-energy-boss-sounds-10b-warning-on-snowy-2-0-20191015-p530rx
50
Hmm, using Lazard as an adviser – not a good move as the energy Lazard reports emanating from the U.S. are often full of serious errors.
20
didn’t realise Jo had put up a new thread, so I’ve posted quite a lot of stuff from comment #21 onward in the previous “the inference crisis” thread, including stuff on the grid, power prices, France/nuclear, India/gas, Ecuador’s “yellow vests” etc.
30
Climate Change: Everywhere is Warming Twice as Fast As Everywhere Else!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=S-CxkCtSnLU
110
So the second earth has finally been discovered? Hahaha!
80
Good find Wilson. This is worth its own thread!
70
Ditto
Hopefully the Sky News team picks up on this.
60
i found NZ isn’t. Well, maybe the North island might be. Always might, could etc.
50
From the self-appointed ™experts™ themselves:
https://niwa.co.nz/climate/summaries/seasonal/winter-2019
“This makes the winter of 2019 the seventh-warmest winter on record”. Oops, not THE warmest EVAH???
https://niwa.co.nz/climate/monthly/climate-summary-for-september-2019
“Temperatures were largely near average… September 2019 was the 4th coldest September this century”.
Oops, not THE warmest EVAH??? Looks like we need a little more homogenisation to get the numbers
rightlefthot.50
Greg it’s still the warmest evah not warmest evah though and by an unprecedented amount .
40
It’s even worse than what they said last time when it was far worse than the time before that.
‘Sumpthink’ is what I call it (a visual reference to gunky old oil drained from an engine block).
20
It is great that people too big for the press to ignore are blowing the whistle.
40
In other news, Susan Crockford of Polar Bear Science has been booted by uvic.ca.
OK, that was expected when dissent is less and less tolerated in universities. She was open on her scientific opinion with polar bears, and opposing alarmists attacked so because her she was gaining momentum.
But what makes my backbone shiver is that reading my facebook feed uvic.ca search has blacklisted(!) crockford as a search word. You can find pages referring to her, but not by searching with her name. This is like 1984. She never existed! Talk about silencing, this is effing making people disappear! This is insane and sicks my stomach. Please vote, please donate, otherwise the elite donors will bring us more Biden, Trudeau and other elite players who’ll let this madness continue.
100
very dangerous Wero. Everyone be on guard.
60
Its so ironic, polar bears survived (very well) the holocene warm period much warmer than today.
Yes, this is bad for academic freedom alright. Hope she can do a ‘Ridd’ on uvic.ca.
40
Slightly O/T,
The local council has been bamboozled by warmist numbers of the benefits of solar.
https://shoalhaven.nsw.gov.au/My-Council/News/ID/3347/Solar-Energy-is-taking-Centre-Stage?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=In%20Your%20Neighbourhood%20Council%20Newsletter%20-%2017%20October%202019&utm_content=In%20Your%20Neighbourhood%20Council%20Newsletter%20-%2017%20October%202019+CID_a4a77a0df8532b17aa34fce5ce495627&utm_source=Email%20marketing%20software&utm_term=here
Perhaps Tony could present cogent numbers that give the real benefits that are likely to be experienced.
60
Wouldn’t you (as a private citizen living in your own home that is) love a deal as sweet as this eh!
You gotta love that (unwittingly) they put up so much information in an effort to make it look like they’re doing the right thing, so you can actually work out all the maths.
Yes yes, all the figures add up. That’s around a 15% Capacity Factor, generating a total of 112,000KWH per year, so that’s 17 (average) homes at around 18KWH per day. Note also it mentions the word ‘estimated’, because the real CF will be closer to just 13%, so it will be generating less power than what they state here.
However, note that this is a saving of just 20% for this one building, so this complex consumes the same power as 85 homes.
But, more importantly, this is a saving of $12500 per year for the Council in the electricity bill. (worked out just for this building in their effort to virtue signal the right message)
So, 112,000KWH gives a saving of $12500. Or 11.15 cents per KWH.
Hmm!
Now, umm, look at your household electricity bill, and hey, wouldn’t you just love to be only paying 11.15 cents per KWH.
It’s the same electricity, it comes from the same sources, it comes down the same poles and wires.
Just that you, as a residential consumer pay, well, more than double it seems, what the council pays for its power.
Tony.
70
But, noooooooo its a ‘free’ market isnt it! 😉
20
Isn’t that about what Fitz reckons he was paying ?
30
Thank you for that Tony. I thought much the same, but there is more to it than the simple math.
There are just a few extra problems.
The Shoalhaven is in a long deep valley that stretches into and partially through the great divide. It is prone storms that travel the easiest way down the valley, significant hail storms!
These often rip up trees destroy crops and damage solar panels as they tend to circle Nowra between the escarpment and the ocean dumping rain and hail on each pass. I wonder if the council has included the extra insurance costs to replace any damaged panels?
How about the availability of replacement panels, they are bound to be Chinese. What about the tons of CO2 that was produced when those panels were made and transported and fitted.
Nowra is quite a long way away from the electrical supply point what happens on one blistering sunny day when the system is producing peak power and then one of those storms rolls in with scant minutes warning. We probably go dark!
Next is the cost of keeping those panels clean as dust storms are also frequent here-abouts.
Then when you look at the Entertainment Centers forth coming attractions most if not all are put on AFTER the sun goes down. The day to day 09:00am to 05:00pm is a small electricity load compared to star studded big stage shows.
But thanks to this news letter we have the mayors claimed savings data that we can compare with actual results next year or next election!
20
The situation is so dire that I am thinking of getting solar panels installed so that I can at least have energy security to run the aircon on hot summer afternoons. Would I be ostracised from this company if I did that?
40
You would need a battery as well and also ensure the system can operate without grid power. All grid connected solar has to separate from the network when grid supply is lost so they do not energise the power lines, which would be unsafe for power line repairers.
The more rooftop that goes in, the harder it is for grid scale intermittents to make money and the sooner they go bust.
70
I’m waiting for the first series of load shedding or blackouts and the absolutely furious backlash from rooftop solar owners who just don’t realise that they also will be blacked out.
Tony.
80
‘furious backlash from rooftop solar owners ‘
They will when their (fl)attery runs out of grunt.
40
Yes Tony it’s amazing the amount of people who think they still work when the power goes out .
30
They will run in daytime but not at night, batterys only, so you better have a good bat..
10
Salome if you get batteries you’d need an expensive system if you wanted to run air conditioning .
30
I don’t usually comment on things political in Australia but I wonder how different things would be if the government’s aim was to have reliable electricity 24/7 instead of meeting clean energy and similar BS demands.
Sorry but the problem looks exactly that simple from here.
90
You have some very good examples in the States across the USA. Hawaii, New York and California are not much different to all of Australia in terms of energy policy. Australia inherited New York’s power guru to release the electricity price genie and she is doing a fine job. Compare those states with say West Virginia – the coal state.
If you had an Obama clone instead of Trump, then all the USA would be closer to Australia in terms of electricity price.
It heartens me that when elections come, the hip pocket nerve is a powerful motivator.
100
What hope does Australia have when a so-called Minister for Energy can state: “Victoria is investing in renewable energy to put more power into the grid and drive down power prices.” Where are the journalists challenging such a statement? Where are the department advisers giving the minister the facts?
PS. The surname D’ambrosio is derived from the Latin Ambrosius, which means immortal.
The facts from AEMO: Back in 2015/16 Victoria had the cheapest wholesale electricity in Australia – $46/MWhr, that supported manufacturing industry. In 2018/19 Victoria had the highest wholesale electricity price along with SA – $110/MWhr. The Portland smelter only survives because of hidden government subsidies.
What drove prices up? Investments in unreliable renewables mandated by the RET (renewable energy target of 3,770 MW) that forced the closure of Hazelwood, and an increased dependence on higher cost peaking gas generators. Having met the RET, prices could stabilise, but now we have States like Vic and Qld setting 50% “renewables” targets.
The facts: Adding more investment in intermittent solar and wind generators increases the capital seeking a return on investment not just in the generators themselves but also in the network that must be able to cope with variable supplies. And reliable coal and gas generators must be kept operational for when the sun doesn’t shine and the wind doesn’t blow. Result: a lot more generators all seeking a return on investment.
From a nameplate capacity of 10,000 MW, solar delivers on average a midday peak of 5,000 MW and a daily average of just 1,400 MW.
From a nameplate capacity of 6,700 MW, wind delivers on average 2,000 MW, but on occasion just 200 MW.
The average demand across the AEMO grid is 24,000 MW, and peak summer demand is 34,000 MW. That must be met by reliable coal, gas and hydro generators. Hydro can deliver a peak of 5,000 MW leaving 29,000 MW that must be supplied by coal and gas generators. (Or in panic mode, add a few scattered diesel generators).
What a disgraceful situation caused solely by ill-informed politicians.
It’s about time business and consumers mounted their own energy rebellion.
110
O sweet ambrosia, food of the gods, nectar of the nymph, immortality!
It’s also the name for ragweed and a beetle: Lily Ragwood-Beetle?
(via Latin from Greek, ‘elixir of life,’ from ambrotos ‘immortal’)
Those crazy drunk Greek gods & goddesses, eh.
30
16 Oct: Financial Post: Was this zoologist punished for telling school kids politically incorrect facts about polar bears?
Opinion: Dr. Susan Crockford describes her expulsion from the University of Victoria as ‘an academic hanging without a trial, conducted behind closed doors’
By Donna Laframboise
Crockford says she isn’t entirely surprised by her expulsion, given her previous ban from the UVic Speakers Bureau…
This week, Crockford will begin a five-country European speaking tour. Audiences in Oslo, London, Paris, Amsterdam and Munich will hear about her research, evaluate her arguments, and draw their own conclusions…
https://business.financialpost.com/opinion/was-this-zoologist-punished-for-telling-school-kids-politically-incorrect-facts-about-polar-bears
some interesting comments re IPCC and UVic funding:
16 Oct: WUWT: Was this zoologist punished for telling school kids politically incorrect facts about polar bears?
posted by charles the moderator
https://wattsupwiththat.com/2019/10/16/was-this-zoologist-punished-for-telling-school-kids-politically-incorrect-facts-about-polar-bears/
50
14 Oct: AliceSpringNews: No power for eight hours on hot, humid day
By ERWIN CHLANDA
People who wanted to watch the Bathurst 1000 on TV missed out.
People who had generators started them up, using $700 equipment to keep their fridges going while the three year old generators at Owen Springs power station, officially worth $75m but reportedly blowing out to $100m, were useless…
Many of the current problems are said to be linked to integrating solar into the gas-powered system and the use of batteries to iron our fluctuations…
FROM COMMENTS:
Shaun:
I think Territory Generation might want to check the BOM weather observations for that day.
It wasn’t humid as stated, the relative humidity was between 6-8% around the time of the blackout. Just because there is cloud it doesn’t mean high humidity…
Peter Brett:
(ENDING) It is imperative that lessons learned be shared across the electricity industry to help with the transition to the new future of renewable energy harvesting.
[That needs to happen] even if inconvenient truths [emerge] such as the impacts on system stability with the proliferation of small and less reliable electricity generators on a system.
https://www.alicespringsnews.com.au/2019/10/14/no-power-for-eight-hours-on-hot-humid-day/
40
14 Oct: ABC: NT traditional owners urge climate change policy makers to witness mangrove devastation
By Jane Bardon
Traditional owner Patsy Evans had hoped there would be signs of recovery at the site of the mangrove dieback, in the Gulf of Carpentaria.
But during a recent visit to the area for the first time since 2015, when she and her husband alerted the Northern Territory Government to the extent of the damage, she was devastated by the scene.
“This is bad, worse, it’s unbelievable, I can’t even believe what’s happening here,” Ms Evans said…
Scientists from Queensland and Northern Territory universities said one contributing factor was a ***temporary drop in sea levels, caused by a change in the trade winds, which left the forests unusually high and dry.
But they said another factor in the dieback along 1,000 kilometres of coastline was climate change and a sharp increase in the sea temperature…
“We can’t see any other driver of the dieback other than the extreme climatic envelope has shifted,” Charles Darwin University professor Lindsay Hutley said.
Dr Hutley said the extent and duration of the dieback was on a par with the severity of Great Barrier Reef bleaching.
“It’s the canary on the coastline; it’s quite significant, probably globally significant,” he said…
They’ve found mangroves have been adapting to climate change and sea level changes by moving inland.
“In parts of the Top End we are experiencing some of the highest sea level rises in the world,” Ms Goddard said.
“If we give mangroves space, the whole forest can move landward, until they hit manmade barriers, and then they are at risk of drowning.
“That they are shifting, to this large degree, because of these climate change influences, is a warning to us.”…
Polar icecap melting underestimated…
CSIRO Sea Level and Coastal Extremes senior researcher Kathy McInnes said even if the Global Paris emissions reduction targets were met, ***that would not be enough to stop this rate of sea level rise.
Dr McInnes said the impacts of polar icecap melting on sea level rise had also been underestimated…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-14/climate-change-mangrove-traditional-owners-call-for-action/11598238
20
‘Dr McInnes said the impacts of polar icecap melting on sea level rise had also been underestimated…’
Sea levels up one place down at the other..garbage. {lease provide real data to prove..nooo we cant find it, got lost when we took the bus to work)
Also DR, so what part of the KNOWN PHYSICS that ice melting in water doesnt raise its level have you missed there? (They would only be talking about (non) melting Arctic ice..Antarctic has no melt, South pole is about 3000m ASL!)
60
Of course what these idiot dont or wont say is that they are seeing results of an approach of the GRAND SOLAR MINIMUM, not CO2.
Wavering jetstreams and cosmic ray increases.
50
The sea is rising twice as fast as everywhere else! Run, Forrest, RUN!!!
In 2019 I’m still surfing over a lava reef I surfed as a grommet in the 1970s –
no change, no difference, no more / no less seawater, same-same. I’m calling $BS$.
50
Hi Folks,
Just what are they Measuring?
They say that the oceans are rising at ever faster rates and there will be levels of increase of 5 or 10 or even 20 meters by 2120. Ok let’s look at those numbers and take the 20-meter rise in a century. That’s 20 cm a year, that will be visible, but there are photographs of Sydney harbor where there is a very rocky small island that does not suffer from erosion and where the high tide mark is clearly visible.
The photos were taken from exactly the same spot in 1883, 1930, and 2016. Where is the huge 20 cm per year?
https://www.google.com.au/search?q=Fort+Dennison+early+photos&sxsrf=ACYBGNS_yzvMxg-agUZR_g39KrCRkBqn3Q:1571291201871&tbm=isch&source=iu&ictx=1&fir=OP4BpI_tKGaf0M%253A%252CCCOyGKDhOqkhcM%252C_&vet=1&usg=AI4_-kTJF7eWguclIV4lD-sbg_9J2MTqlg&sa=X&ved=2ahUKEwiXhLTvy6LlAhUSeysKHSykDg8Q9QEwAHoECAUQBg#imgdii=T2pXq8GRCRTRRM:&imgrc=OP4BpI_tKGaf0M:&vet=1
Ok let us look at what the warmist’s claim to be evidence.
The quoted 20 m over 133 years is stated as 20 cm at Fort Dennison over that 133 years. I dispute that finding as there is little or no data from which to work out the water level. You would need the exact time of day for each photo to let you gauge the lunar cycle neaps/springs and what the weather had been doing, any storm surge prior to the photos being taken.
However; there is that white stone line just above the peak high-water mark, nicely drawn for us by mother nature.
I have looked very carefully and there may be FIVE cm difference between the photos and the 1930 photo shows the highest sea level!
Where is the catastrophic sea level rise?????
10
In Victoristan they are building Turncoat’s Snowy Hydro 2 or whatever at some enormous cost.
Can someone just remind me of the estimated cost and the backup capcity of this white elephant.
GeoffW
30
Geoffrey Williams –
see comment #24 – AFR link – Former energy boss sounds $10b warning on Snowy 2.0
but note the final excerpt re those who prepared the report:
“The NPA has long opposed the pumped hydro project on environmental grounds, claiming its impact will extend beyond the official 1680-hectare “disturbance footprint” to 10,000 hectares of Kosciuszko National Park.”
—
there might be something to that claim by AFR. I certainly wondered why ABC went on the attack against their mate Malcolm’s project:
14 Oct: ABC: Snowy Hydro 2.0 a costly white elephant that won’t deliver, says energy expert
7.30 By Carrington Clarke
“Here is a project that is likely to cost five times more than the then prime minister [Malcolm Turnbull] said it would, and whose capability is nowhere near what has been claimed of it,” the director of the Victorian Energy Policy Centre, Bruce Mountain, told 7.30…
(Turnbull) assured the electorate it would cost $2 billion and be up and running by 2021…
By April 2019, a contract for part of the project was signed for $5.1 billion — and that doesn’t include transmission costs, which will cost billions more…
Ted Woodley is a former senior energy executive who is now a member of the National Parks Association, a group of volunteers whose aim is to protect public parks.
He is alarmed by the scale of the project and what it will do to the Kosciuszko National Park.
“The project, in my mind, was always large, but I had never envisaged it would be this large or this complex or this impactful,” he told 7.30.
“I think most people in Australia, when they learn the facts, will be as concerned as I am.
“We’re talking about 100 square kilometres of this park will be permanently damaged, and in some cases destroyed.
“This to me is tragic.”
Snowy Hydro disputes Mr Woodley’s assertion that 100 square kilometres of park would be damaged. It says most of the impacted areas will be rehabilitated and that only 1 square kilometre of national park will be permanently damaged.
Snowy Hydro’s CEO thinks the project is absolutely essential as Australia moves away from coal…
“There’s a massive amount of renewals(sic) coming into the market — you can’t have it without some kind of storage.
“It is cuckoo land stuff if you think you can just have renewables without storage.”…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-14/snowy-hydro-2.0-expensive-and-wont-deliver-energy-expert/11594768
40
$10 billion which is still only an estimate plus the $6 billion forked out to NSW and Victoriastan for their share of the snowy .
Renewables just get cheaper and cheaper .
30
The fact that, as I have said all along, this is not ….. new power, and it is a net consumer of power is pretty much incidental, but has anyone seen the irony in this.
The whole idea of this pumped hydro is that, (in much the same manner as the already existing large scale pumped Hydro plant already in the Snowy Scheme, Tumut Three) it will be using up to 1.4 times more power to pump the water back up to the upper holding ‘pondage’. Also in much the same manner as Tumut Three already has been doing for decades, it will be using that power when it is at its cheapest, and that is, on virtually every occasion, at the time of absolute minimum power consumption during each day. That is around 4AM, a couple of hours either side of that, and that is when coal fired power is delivering (more than) 80% of every generated watt of power, and incidentally, when power is at is cheapest, and hey, isn’t there a hint about power plant costings right there.
It will then be releasing that water down the huge pipes to flow across the Turbines driving the generators, generating power to deliver it at the peak power time during each and (mostly) every day, when power costs are at their highest.
So, it is relying ABSOLUTELY on power costs remaining high to pay back on the original investment.
Then we have the idea of using ‘left over’ solar and wind power to be used to pump the water back up the hill. If it’s a 2000MW plant, then that’s (more likely, in the same manner as Tumut Three already is doing) 1200MW for two hours.
The cost of power rises every day from that 4AM point in time when it is cheapest. So, it sort of defeats the purpose to place solar power in the pumping back up the hill mix, as you only have solar power during daylight hours when power costs are rising already, and 1200MW out of the Commercial solar plant mix or the wind power mix is a pretty big impost on solar and wind, that’s if the wind is able to deliver the bulk of that 1200MW at ANY time, let alone when it is needed the most.
As to solar power and wind power. You either divert it for this pumping purpose or actually use it for you know, desperately needed daily power consumption.
They WILL be relying on cheap coal fired power to pump it up the hill at 4AM, as they already do with Tumut Three, and relying on power costs being high at the peak so they can recover their costs.
Methinks supporters of Snowy 2.0 speak with forked tongue.
Tony.
60
15 Oct: ABC: The Top End’s multi-million-dollar mango industry in race to adapt to climate change
By Jane Bardon
The Top End’s mango industry is worth $122 million a year but the sector is under threat from climate change, industry figures have warned…
“Rainfall is declining as a trend and prediction of temperature is becoming increasingly more difficult,” said ***Martina Matzner, the general manager of Acacia Hills Farm…
Ms Matzner said she believed only more global efforts to stop carbon emissions rising would save her industry long term.
“We just need to accept that climate change is real, and it would be foolish not to be concerned about it, and once we can accept that, we can look at the solutions,” she said…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-10-15/climate-change-fruit-industry-northern-territory/11600978
ABC – what changed?
3 Oct: ABC: Mango season heating up in the Northern Territory as industry continues to expand
ABC Rural by Matt Brann
President of the NT Mango Industry Association, Leo Skliros, said this year’s season had faced plenty of weather-related challenges, including ***a long run of cooler than average nights and a lot of fruit lost to gusty winds and fire…
The mango industry in Australia has seen a lot of investment and expansion over the last five to 10 years and that is showing no signs of slowing down in the Northern Territory…
At Lambells Lagoon near Darwin, the company Cheeky Farms has recently built one of the biggest mango packing sheds in the Southern Hemisphere…
“We expanding and we’re in negotiations to buy more land around Darwin,” he said.
“We definitely will be putting more trees into the ground…
“We’re confident about the mango industry because besides the strong Australian market, I think we still haven’t touched the unlimited export market and that’s where the biggest potential for growers are.
“We have China, Korea, Japan, Hong Kong, Singapore, plenty of places overseas that love Australian mangoes and need to see more of them.”…
https://www.abc.net.au/news/rural/2019-10-03/northern-territory-mango-season-heating-up/11568336
11 Feb: ABC: How Northern Territory mangoes went from luxury item to household staple
Landline By Kristy O’Brien and Anna Levy
This season, 10 million trays were packed from Queensland, Western Australia and the Northern territory, and sent to markets in southern Australia or exported overseas…
In recent years, the mango industry has achieved success similar to avocado growers, who managed to change consumer opinions of the fruit from a luxury to a household staple.
Seventy-six per cent of the population now buy mangoes, compared to 66 per cent in 2014, according to data from the Australian Mango Industry Association (AMIA).
The Northern Territory is now not only the largest grower of mangoes in the country, but also a consumer favourite…
***Martina Matzner manages one of the biggest mango farms in the Northern Territory, Calypso Mango in Darwin…
Ms Matzner said growing mango varieties that extend the harvesting period would also boost already-booming sales…
“The opportunities up here are endless. If you want to do something and you believe in it, this is the place to come.
https://www.abc.net.au/news/2019-02-10/nt-mangoes-from-luxury-to-staple/1075631
31
In order to be a good liar you need a good memory , the ABC proves this fact every single day .
40
ABC: Australia
BloodyBigtime Cuckoo.You could always add the 4th letter of the alphabet: D for Drongo.
Glad I left the place in 1986 – it’s all been downhill since then (apart from you lot and Jo) 🙂
P.S. Any words/photos from your trip outback, Jo?
40
Obviously a large backup diesel generator is much cleaner than a coal plant!
Wait until they get the order for the factory to shut down while their generator backs up the grid!
20